NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIL IND
Points 123.9 121.4
Total Points   245.4
Points From 2-Pointers 66.0 67.0
Points From 3-Pointers 35.3 37.9
Points From Free Throws 22.7 16.5
Shooting MIL IND
Field Goals Made 44.8 46.1
Field Goals Attempted 87.1 93.4
Field Goal % 51.4% 49.4%
2 Pointers Made 33.0 33.5
2 Pointers Attempted 56.1 59.0
2 Point Shooting % 58.8% 56.7%
3 Pointers Made 11.8 12.6
3 Pointers Attempted 31.0 34.4
3 Point Shooting % 38.0% 36.8%
Free Throws Made 22.7 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 29.2 21.5
Free Throw % 77.5% 76.8%
Ball Control MIL IND
Rebounds 49.5 46.0
Rebounds - Defensive 39.0 35.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 10.7
Turnovers 11.9 10.4
Blocked Shots 4.6 4.9
Steals 5.6 6.5
Fouls 17.6 20.3

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIL IND
Total Possessions 105.3
Effective Scoring Chances 103.9 105.6
% of Possessions with MIL IND
2 Point Attempt 47.6% 50.1%
3 Point Attempt 26.3% 29.2%
Player Fouled 19.3% 16.7%
Turnover 11.3% 9.9%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 5.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIL IND
Shot Blocked 5.4% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 23.0% 21.6%