NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIL DET
Points 121.9 110.1
Total Points   232.0
Points From 2-Pointers 61.8 59.3
Points From 3-Pointers 39.6 33.5
Points From Free Throws 20.5 17.3
Shooting MIL DET
Field Goals Made 44.1 40.8
Field Goals Attempted 86.2 89.8
Field Goal % 51.2% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 30.9 29.6
2 Pointers Attempted 51.2 57.4
2 Point Shooting % 60.3% 51.6%
3 Pointers Made 13.2 11.2
3 Pointers Attempted 34.9 32.4
3 Point Shooting % 37.8% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 20.5 17.3
Free Throws Attempted 26.3 22.1
Free Throw % 78.0% 78.3%
Ball Control MIL DET
Rebounds 49.3 47.0
Rebounds - Defensive 40.1 36.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 11.0
Turnovers 11.0 11.9
Blocked Shots 5.4 3.8
Steals 7.2 5.8
Fouls 16.2 18.8

Playing Style Advantage: Detroit

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIL DET
Total Possessions 103.2
Effective Scoring Chances 101.4 102.3
% of Possessions with MIL DET
2 Point Attempt 45.0% 49.3%
3 Point Attempt 30.7% 27.9%
Player Fouled 18.2% 15.7%
Turnover 10.6% 11.5%
Opponent Steal 5.6% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIL DET
Shot Blocked 4.3% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 20.3% 21.5%