NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIL TOR
Points 124.0 112.0
Total Points   236.0
Points From 2-Pointers 61.8 61.3
Points From 3-Pointers 44.7 33.8
Points From Free Throws 17.5 16.8
Shooting MIL TOR
Field Goals Made 45.8 42.0
Field Goals Attempted 89.4 91.5
Field Goal % 51.3% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 30.9 30.7
2 Pointers Attempted 50.2 58.2
2 Point Shooting % 61.6% 52.7%
3 Pointers Made 14.9 11.3
3 Pointers Attempted 39.2 33.3
3 Point Shooting % 38.1% 33.8%
Free Throws Made 17.5 16.8
Free Throws Attempted 22.6 21.9
Free Throw % 77.3% 76.6%
Ball Control MIL TOR
Rebounds 51.7 46.3
Rebounds - Defensive 40.4 35.0
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 11.4
Turnovers 12.1 11.2
Blocked Shots 5.6 3.8
Steals 6.0 6.8
Fouls 16.8 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIL TOR
Total Possessions 103.6
Effective Scoring Chances 102.8 103.8
% of Possessions with MIL TOR
2 Point Attempt 43.2% 49.6%
3 Point Attempt 33.6% 28.4%
Player Fouled 16.8% 16.2%
Turnover 11.7% 10.8%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIL TOR
Shot Blocked 4.2% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 24.3% 22.0%