NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIL TOR
Points 123.7 112.6
Total Points   236.3
Points From 2-Pointers 61.4 61.8
Points From 3-Pointers 44.7 34.5
Points From Free Throws 17.6 16.3
Shooting MIL TOR
Field Goals Made 45.6 42.4
Field Goals Attempted 89.5 92.2
Field Goal % 50.9% 46.0%
2 Pointers Made 30.7 30.9
2 Pointers Attempted 51.0 58.6
2 Point Shooting % 60.2% 52.8%
3 Pointers Made 14.9 11.5
3 Pointers Attempted 38.5 33.6
3 Point Shooting % 38.6% 34.2%
Free Throws Made 17.6 16.3
Free Throws Attempted 22.7 21.5
Free Throw % 77.5% 75.8%
Ball Control MIL TOR
Rebounds 51.6 47.2
Rebounds - Defensive 40.6 35.5
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 11.7
Turnovers 11.9 11.0
Blocked Shots 5.0 4.0
Steals 5.9 6.7
Fouls 16.8 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIL TOR
Total Possessions 103.8
Effective Scoring Chances 102.9 104.5
% of Possessions with MIL TOR
2 Point Attempt 43.8% 49.9%
3 Point Attempt 33.1% 28.6%
Player Fouled 16.7% 16.2%
Turnover 11.5% 10.6%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 5.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIL TOR
Shot Blocked 4.4% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 23.7% 22.4%