NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIL SA
Points 118.5 112.6
Total Points   231.0
Points From 2-Pointers 61.2 59.4
Points From 3-Pointers 40.4 37.6
Points From Free Throws 16.9 15.5
Shooting MIL SA
Field Goals Made 44.1 42.3
Field Goals Attempted 90.8 91.8
Field Goal % 48.5% 46.0%
2 Pointers Made 30.6 29.7
2 Pointers Attempted 54.8 55.5
2 Point Shooting % 55.8% 53.5%
3 Pointers Made 13.5 12.5
3 Pointers Attempted 36.0 36.2
3 Point Shooting % 37.5% 34.6%
Free Throws Made 16.9 15.5
Free Throws Attempted 21.7 20.0
Free Throw % 78.0% 77.6%
Ball Control MIL SA
Rebounds 50.6 49.9
Rebounds - Defensive 40.5 38.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 11.1
Turnovers 11.4 11.9
Blocked Shots 4.3 5.2
Steals 7.2 6.0
Fouls 16.4 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIL SA
Total Possessions 104.2
Effective Scoring Chances 102.9 103.4
% of Possessions with MIL SA
2 Point Attempt 47.1% 47.4%
3 Point Attempt 30.9% 31.0%
Player Fouled 15.1% 15.7%
Turnover 10.9% 11.4%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIL SA
Shot Blocked 5.8% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 20.7% 21.6%