NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIL WAS
Points 125.0 113.5
Total Points   238.5
Points From 2-Pointers 65.8 61.0
Points From 3-Pointers 38.6 36.7
Points From Free Throws 20.6 15.7
Shooting MIL WAS
Field Goals Made 45.8 42.8
Field Goals Attempted 89.3 92.5
Field Goal % 51.3% 46.2%
2 Pointers Made 32.9 30.5
2 Pointers Attempted 53.9 56.7
2 Point Shooting % 61.0% 53.8%
3 Pointers Made 12.9 12.2
3 Pointers Attempted 35.4 35.8
3 Point Shooting % 36.4% 34.2%
Free Throws Made 20.6 15.7
Free Throws Attempted 26.5 20.4
Free Throw % 78.0% 76.8%
Ball Control MIL WAS
Rebounds 53.4 45.0
Rebounds - Defensive 42.2 35.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 9.6
Turnovers 11.7 11.2
Blocked Shots 5.6 4.1
Steals 6.6 6.3
Fouls 16.8 18.6

Playing Style Advantage: Washington

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIL WAS
Total Possessions 105.3
Effective Scoring Chances 104.8 103.7
% of Possessions with MIL WAS
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 48.4%
3 Point Attempt 29.9% 30.6%
Player Fouled 17.6% 15.9%
Turnover 11.1% 10.6%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIL WAS
Shot Blocked 4.5% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 24.0% 18.5%