NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIL WAS
Points 125.1 113.4
Total Points   238.4
Points From 2-Pointers 65.9 60.9
Points From 3-Pointers 38.4 36.7
Points From Free Throws 20.8 15.7
Shooting MIL WAS
Field Goals Made 45.8 42.7
Field Goals Attempted 89.2 92.5
Field Goal % 51.3% 46.1%
2 Pointers Made 33.0 30.5
2 Pointers Attempted 53.9 56.8
2 Point Shooting % 61.1% 53.6%
3 Pointers Made 12.8 12.2
3 Pointers Attempted 35.3 35.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.2% 34.3%
Free Throws Made 20.8 15.7
Free Throws Attempted 26.9 20.5
Free Throw % 77.3% 76.8%
Ball Control MIL WAS
Rebounds 53.6 44.9
Rebounds - Defensive 42.3 35.3
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 9.6
Turnovers 11.8 11.2
Blocked Shots 5.6 4.1
Steals 6.6 6.4
Fouls 16.8 18.7

Playing Style Advantage: Washington

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIL WAS
Total Possessions 105.4
Effective Scoring Chances 105.0 103.8
% of Possessions with MIL WAS
2 Point Attempt 45.5% 48.5%
3 Point Attempt 29.8% 30.5%
Player Fouled 17.8% 16.0%
Turnover 11.2% 10.7%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIL WAS
Shot Blocked 4.5% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 24.3% 18.5%