NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CHI MIA
Points 108.6 110.8
Total Points   219.5
Points From 2-Pointers 58.4 49.3
Points From 3-Pointers 35.1 42.8
Points From Free Throws 15.1 18.7
Shooting CHI MIA
Field Goals Made 40.9 38.9
Field Goals Attempted 87.0 83.8
Field Goal % 47.1% 46.5%
2 Pointers Made 29.2 24.7
2 Pointers Attempted 52.9 45.8
2 Point Shooting % 55.2% 53.9%
3 Pointers Made 11.7 14.3
3 Pointers Attempted 34.1 38.0
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 15.1 18.7
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 22.9
Free Throw % 79.2% 81.9%
Ball Control CHI MIA
Rebounds 47.5 47.2
Rebounds - Defensive 36.9 37.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 9.8
Turnovers 11.2 11.8
Blocked Shots 4.5 3.0
Steals 6.4 6.3
Fouls 17.4 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CHI MIA
Total Possessions 99.0
Effective Scoring Chances 98.4 97.0
% of Possessions with CHI MIA
2 Point Attempt 47.7% 41.4%
3 Point Attempt 30.7% 34.4%
Player Fouled 15.9% 17.6%
Turnover 11.3% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken CHI MIA
Shot Blocked 3.7% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 22.1% 21.0%