NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CLE MIA
Points 107.6 106.9
Total Points   214.4
Points From 2-Pointers 52.2 51.7
Points From 3-Pointers 41.0 37.8
Points From Free Throws 14.3 17.4
Shooting CLE MIA
Field Goals Made 39.8 38.5
Field Goals Attempted 84.0 84.2
Field Goal % 47.4% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 26.1 25.8
2 Pointers Attempted 45.1 50.7
2 Point Shooting % 57.9% 50.9%
3 Pointers Made 13.7 12.6
3 Pointers Attempted 38.9 33.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 37.7%
Free Throws Made 14.3 17.4
Free Throws Attempted 18.8 21.2
Free Throw % 76.0% 81.9%
Ball Control CLE MIA
Rebounds 47.4 46.7
Rebounds - Defensive 37.7 36.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 9.7
Turnovers 12.7 11.6
Blocked Shots 4.0 3.2
Steals 6.1 7.3
Fouls 15.9 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CLE MIA
Total Possessions 98.4
Effective Scoring Chances 95.3 96.5
% of Possessions with CLE MIA
2 Point Attempt 41.3% 46.2%
3 Point Attempt 35.6% 30.5%
Player Fouled 16.4% 16.2%
Turnover 12.9% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken CLE MIA
Shot Blocked 3.9% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 20.7% 20.5%