NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BOS MEM
Points 120.7 101.7
Total Points   222.4
Points From 2-Pointers 52.3 46.8
Points From 3-Pointers 51.4 41.3
Points From Free Throws 17.0 13.7
Shooting BOS MEM
Field Goals Made 43.3 37.1
Field Goals Attempted 89.1 92.2
Field Goal % 48.6% 40.3%
2 Pointers Made 26.2 23.4
2 Pointers Attempted 46.1 51.4
2 Point Shooting % 56.8% 45.5%
3 Pointers Made 17.1 13.8
3 Pointers Attempted 43.0 40.8
3 Point Shooting % 39.9% 33.7%
Free Throws Made 17.0 13.7
Free Throws Attempted 21.0 18.1
Free Throw % 80.8% 75.8%
Ball Control BOS MEM
Rebounds 55.6 48.3
Rebounds - Defensive 43.3 35.3
Rebounds - Offensive 12.3 13.1
Turnovers 11.9 12.2
Blocked Shots 7.7 4.6
Steals 6.7 6.0
Fouls 15.1 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Memphis

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BOS MEM
Total Possessions 101.0
Effective Scoring Chances 101.4 101.8
% of Possessions with BOS MEM
2 Point Attempt 40.0% 43.9%
3 Point Attempt 37.3% 34.9%
Player Fouled 16.1% 14.9%
Turnover 11.8% 12.1%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken BOS MEM
Shot Blocked 5.1% 8.8%
Offensive Rebound 25.9% 23.2%