NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BOS MIA
Points 113.8 104.2
Total Points   218.0
Points From 2-Pointers 49.5 49.9
Points From 3-Pointers 50.0 40.1
Points From Free Throws 14.2 14.2
Shooting BOS MIA
Field Goals Made 41.4 38.3
Field Goals Attempted 87.2 89.9
Field Goal % 47.5% 42.6%
2 Pointers Made 24.8 24.9
2 Pointers Attempted 42.6 53.0
2 Point Shooting % 58.2% 47.1%
3 Pointers Made 16.7 13.4
3 Pointers Attempted 44.6 36.9
3 Point Shooting % 37.4% 36.2%
Free Throws Made 14.2 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 17.9 17.4
Free Throw % 79.1% 81.9%
Ball Control BOS MIA
Rebounds 51.9 48.3
Rebounds - Defensive 41.3 37.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 11.1
Turnovers 10.9 10.3
Blocked Shots 5.9 2.5
Steals 5.6 5.7
Fouls 14.5 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BOS MIA
Total Possessions 98.5
Effective Scoring Chances 98.1 99.2
% of Possessions with BOS MIA
2 Point Attempt 38.7% 47.3%
3 Point Attempt 40.5% 32.9%
Player Fouled 14.6% 14.7%
Turnover 11.1% 10.5%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 5.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken BOS MIA
Shot Blocked 2.8% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 22.1% 21.1%