NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BOS MIA
Points 114.2 104.1
Total Points   218.3
Points From 2-Pointers 49.4 50.9
Points From 3-Pointers 50.7 39.0
Points From Free Throws 14.1 14.2
Shooting BOS MIA
Field Goals Made 41.6 38.4
Field Goals Attempted 87.6 90.3
Field Goal % 47.5% 42.6%
2 Pointers Made 24.7 25.4
2 Pointers Attempted 42.4 53.8
2 Point Shooting % 58.3% 47.3%
3 Pointers Made 16.9 13.0
3 Pointers Attempted 45.2 36.5
3 Point Shooting % 37.4% 35.6%
Free Throws Made 14.1 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 17.8 17.3
Free Throw % 79.2% 82.0%
Ball Control BOS MIA
Rebounds 52.1 48.5
Rebounds - Defensive 41.4 37.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 11.3
Turnovers 10.8 10.2
Blocked Shots 5.8 2.5
Steals 5.5 5.6
Fouls 14.4 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BOS MIA
Total Possessions 98.6
Effective Scoring Chances 98.5 99.7
% of Possessions with BOS MIA
2 Point Attempt 38.5% 47.9%
3 Point Attempt 40.9% 32.5%
Player Fouled 14.4% 14.6%
Turnover 11.0% 10.4%
Opponent Steal 5.7% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken BOS MIA
Shot Blocked 2.9% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 22.3% 21.5%