NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BOS MIA
Points 114.2 104.1
Total Points   218.4
Points From 2-Pointers 50.1 50.8
Points From 3-Pointers 50.0 39.0
Points From Free Throws 14.2 14.4
Shooting BOS MIA
Field Goals Made 41.7 38.4
Field Goals Attempted 87.7 90.6
Field Goal % 47.5% 42.4%
2 Pointers Made 25.0 25.4
2 Pointers Attempted 42.8 54.0
2 Point Shooting % 58.4% 47.0%
3 Pointers Made 16.7 13.0
3 Pointers Attempted 44.8 36.6
3 Point Shooting % 37.1% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 14.2 14.4
Free Throws Attempted 17.9 17.7
Free Throw % 79.1% 81.5%
Ball Control BOS MIA
Rebounds 52.3 48.8
Rebounds - Defensive 41.6 37.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 11.6
Turnovers 10.9 10.2
Blocked Shots 5.8 2.5
Steals 5.4 5.7
Fouls 14.6 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BOS MIA
Total Possessions 98.8
Effective Scoring Chances 98.7 100.2
% of Possessions with BOS MIA
2 Point Attempt 38.8% 47.9%
3 Point Attempt 40.6% 32.4%
Player Fouled 14.5% 14.8%
Turnover 11.0% 10.3%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken BOS MIA
Shot Blocked 2.9% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 22.3% 21.8%