NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BOS MIA
Points 116.2 103.3
Total Points   219.6
Points From 2-Pointers 49.2 51.6
Points From 3-Pointers 52.0 37.1
Points From Free Throws 15.1 14.7
Shooting BOS MIA
Field Goals Made 41.9 38.1
Field Goals Attempted 86.8 90.2
Field Goal % 48.3% 42.3%
2 Pointers Made 24.6 25.8
2 Pointers Attempted 41.8 54.8
2 Point Shooting % 58.8% 47.1%
3 Pointers Made 17.3 12.4
3 Pointers Attempted 45.0 35.4
3 Point Shooting % 38.5% 34.9%
Free Throws Made 15.1 14.7
Free Throws Attempted 18.7 18.2
Free Throw % 80.7% 80.8%
Ball Control BOS MIA
Rebounds 52.2 47.7
Rebounds - Defensive 41.7 36.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 11.4
Turnovers 10.9 10.0
Blocked Shots 6.0 2.4
Steals 5.3 5.6
Fouls 14.8 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BOS MIA
Total Possessions 98.6
Effective Scoring Chances 98.3 100.0
% of Possessions with BOS MIA
2 Point Attempt 37.9% 48.7%
3 Point Attempt 40.9% 31.5%
Player Fouled 15.2% 15.0%
Turnover 11.0% 10.2%
Opponent Steal 5.7% 5.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken BOS MIA
Shot Blocked 2.8% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 22.5% 21.5%