NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BOS MIA
Points 114.4 104.2
Total Points   218.6
Points From 2-Pointers 50.3 50.9
Points From 3-Pointers 50.0 38.8
Points From Free Throws 14.2 14.5
Shooting BOS MIA
Field Goals Made 41.8 38.4
Field Goals Attempted 87.8 90.5
Field Goal % 47.6% 42.4%
2 Pointers Made 25.1 25.4
2 Pointers Attempted 42.9 54.1
2 Point Shooting % 58.6% 47.1%
3 Pointers Made 16.7 12.9
3 Pointers Attempted 44.9 36.4
3 Point Shooting % 37.1% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 14.2 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 17.9 17.7
Free Throw % 79.1% 81.7%
Ball Control BOS MIA
Rebounds 52.2 48.8
Rebounds - Defensive 41.7 37.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 11.4
Turnovers 10.8 10.2
Blocked Shots 5.9 2.5
Steals 5.5 5.6
Fouls 14.7 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BOS MIA
Total Possessions 98.9
Effective Scoring Chances 98.7 100.1
% of Possessions with BOS MIA
2 Point Attempt 38.8% 48.0%
3 Point Attempt 40.6% 32.3%
Player Fouled 14.5% 14.9%
Turnover 10.9% 10.3%
Opponent Steal 5.7% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken BOS MIA
Shot Blocked 2.9% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 22.1% 21.5%