NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BOS TOR
Points 126.8 106.0
Total Points   232.9
Points From 2-Pointers 59.0 57.3
Points From 3-Pointers 52.9 35.5
Points From Free Throws 14.9 13.3
Shooting BOS TOR
Field Goals Made 47.1 40.5
Field Goals Attempted 92.4 94.4
Field Goal % 51.0% 42.9%
2 Pointers Made 29.5 28.6
2 Pointers Attempted 48.2 59.0
2 Point Shooting % 61.2% 48.5%
3 Pointers Made 17.6 11.8
3 Pointers Attempted 44.1 35.3
3 Point Shooting % 39.9% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 14.9 13.3
Free Throws Attempted 18.8 17.4
Free Throw % 79.2% 76.6%
Ball Control BOS TOR
Rebounds 55.1 47.2
Rebounds - Defensive 42.0 34.1
Rebounds - Offensive 13.0 13.0
Turnovers 11.0 11.3
Blocked Shots 7.6 3.4
Steals 6.1 5.7
Fouls 13.9 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BOS TOR
Total Possessions 101.7
Effective Scoring Chances 103.8 103.5
% of Possessions with BOS TOR
2 Point Attempt 41.5% 50.1%
3 Point Attempt 38.0% 30.0%
Player Fouled 14.9% 13.6%
Turnover 10.8% 11.1%
Opponent Steal 5.6% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken BOS TOR
Shot Blocked 3.7% 8.3%
Offensive Rebound 27.6% 23.7%