NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BOS TOR
Points 126.8 106.2
Total Points   232.9
Points From 2-Pointers 59.3 57.2
Points From 3-Pointers 52.6 35.5
Points From Free Throws 14.9 13.5
Shooting BOS TOR
Field Goals Made 47.2 40.4
Field Goals Attempted 92.6 94.6
Field Goal % 51.0% 42.7%
2 Pointers Made 29.6 28.6
2 Pointers Attempted 48.4 59.2
2 Point Shooting % 61.2% 48.3%
3 Pointers Made 17.5 11.8
3 Pointers Attempted 44.2 35.4
3 Point Shooting % 39.7% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 14.9 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 18.8 17.6
Free Throw % 79.1% 76.6%
Ball Control BOS TOR
Rebounds 55.2 47.5
Rebounds - Defensive 42.1 34.3
Rebounds - Offensive 13.1 13.2
Turnovers 11.0 11.3
Blocked Shots 7.6 3.5
Steals 6.1 5.8
Fouls 14.0 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BOS TOR
Total Possessions 101.9
Effective Scoring Chances 104.0 103.8
% of Possessions with BOS TOR
2 Point Attempt 41.6% 50.1%
3 Point Attempt 38.0% 29.9%
Player Fouled 14.9% 13.7%
Turnover 10.8% 11.1%
Opponent Steal 5.6% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken BOS TOR
Shot Blocked 3.8% 8.3%
Offensive Rebound 27.6% 23.9%