NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BOS HOU
Points 119.9 108.8
Total Points   228.8
Points From 2-Pointers 52.6 55.1
Points From 3-Pointers 47.6 38.4
Points From Free Throws 19.8 15.4
Shooting BOS HOU
Field Goals Made 42.1 40.3
Field Goals Attempted 88.8 95.4
Field Goal % 47.4% 42.3%
2 Pointers Made 26.3 27.5
2 Pointers Attempted 45.7 57.5
2 Point Shooting % 57.6% 47.8%
3 Pointers Made 15.9 12.8
3 Pointers Attempted 43.2 37.8
3 Point Shooting % 36.7% 33.8%
Free Throws Made 19.8 15.4
Free Throws Attempted 24.5 19.9
Free Throw % 80.7% 77.2%
Ball Control BOS HOU
Rebounds 54.6 51.2
Rebounds - Defensive 42.4 36.9
Rebounds - Offensive 12.2 14.3
Turnovers 10.8 10.2
Blocked Shots 6.8 3.5
Steals 5.8 5.8
Fouls 15.5 17.8

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BOS HOU
Total Possessions 102.1
Effective Scoring Chances 103.5 106.2
% of Possessions with BOS HOU
2 Point Attempt 39.5% 48.3%
3 Point Attempt 37.3% 31.8%
Player Fouled 17.5% 15.2%
Turnover 10.6% 10.0%
Opponent Steal 5.7% 5.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken BOS HOU
Shot Blocked 3.7% 7.7%
Offensive Rebound 24.9% 25.2%