NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BOS MIN
Points 112.0 107.7
Total Points   219.7
Points From 2-Pointers 50.3 53.7
Points From 3-Pointers 45.2 39.6
Points From Free Throws 16.5 14.4
Shooting BOS MIN
Field Goals Made 40.2 40.0
Field Goals Attempted 88.4 89.6
Field Goal % 45.5% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 25.2 26.8
2 Pointers Attempted 49.2 54.5
2 Point Shooting % 51.1% 49.3%
3 Pointers Made 15.1 13.2
3 Pointers Attempted 39.2 35.2
3 Point Shooting % 38.4% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 16.5 14.4
Free Throws Attempted 20.9 18.7
Free Throw % 79.1% 77.2%
Ball Control BOS MIN
Rebounds 51.5 49.9
Rebounds - Defensive 39.5 38.2
Rebounds - Offensive 12.0 11.8
Turnovers 11.2 11.4
Blocked Shots 5.5 4.6
Steals 6.4 5.9
Fouls 15.7 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Boston

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BOS MIN
Total Possessions 99.8
Effective Scoring Chances 100.6 100.1
% of Possessions with BOS MIN
2 Point Attempt 43.3% 47.9%
3 Point Attempt 34.5% 30.9%
Player Fouled 15.5% 15.7%
Turnover 11.2% 11.5%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken BOS MIN
Shot Blocked 5.2% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 23.9% 22.9%