NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LAC HOU
Points 117.1 113.4
Total Points   230.4
Points From 2-Pointers 59.3 56.4
Points From 3-Pointers 35.9 38.9
Points From Free Throws 21.9 18.0
Shooting LAC HOU
Field Goals Made 41.6 41.2
Field Goals Attempted 85.4 91.5
Field Goal % 48.7% 45.0%
2 Pointers Made 29.6 28.2
2 Pointers Attempted 52.2 54.3
2 Point Shooting % 56.8% 51.9%
3 Pointers Made 12.0 13.0
3 Pointers Attempted 33.2 37.2
3 Point Shooting % 36.0% 34.8%
Free Throws Made 21.9 18.0
Free Throws Attempted 26.2 23.5
Free Throw % 83.5% 76.8%
Ball Control LAC HOU
Rebounds 50.1 48.6
Rebounds - Defensive 38.8 34.5
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 14.1
Turnovers 12.2 10.6
Blocked Shots 5.2 4.3
Steals 6.6 6.9
Fouls 17.4 18.6

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LAC HOU
Total Possessions 101.7
Effective Scoring Chances 100.8 105.1
% of Possessions with LAC HOU
2 Point Attempt 45.5% 46.1%
3 Point Attempt 29.0% 31.6%
Player Fouled 18.3% 17.1%
Turnover 12.0% 10.5%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken LAC HOU
Shot Blocked 4.8% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 24.7% 26.6%