NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MEM MIA
Points 103.4 109.1
Total Points   212.5
Points From 2-Pointers 46.5 53.2
Points From 3-Pointers 41.7 37.7
Points From Free Throws 15.1 18.2
Shooting MEM MIA
Field Goals Made 37.2 39.2
Field Goals Attempted 84.0 85.2
Field Goal % 44.2% 46.0%
2 Pointers Made 23.3 26.6
2 Pointers Attempted 43.8 51.4
2 Point Shooting % 53.1% 51.7%
3 Pointers Made 13.9 12.6
3 Pointers Attempted 40.2 33.8
3 Point Shooting % 34.6% 37.2%
Free Throws Made 15.1 18.2
Free Throws Attempted 20.0 22.5
Free Throw % 75.8% 80.8%
Ball Control MEM MIA
Rebounds 47.3 49.7
Rebounds - Defensive 36.9 38.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 10.9
Turnovers 14.0 12.6
Blocked Shots 5.8 4.1
Steals 6.4 7.5
Fouls 17.5 16.4

Playing Style Advantage: Memphis

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MEM MIA
Total Possessions 99.6
Effective Scoring Chances 96.0 98.0
% of Possessions with MEM MIA
2 Point Attempt 39.2% 45.5%
3 Point Attempt 36.0% 30.0%
Player Fouled 16.4% 17.5%
Turnover 14.1% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MEM MIA
Shot Blocked 4.9% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 21.2% 22.9%