NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MEM MIA
Points 102.2 110.6
Total Points   212.9
Points From 2-Pointers 47.6 52.7
Points From 3-Pointers 39.7 39.5
Points From Free Throws 14.9 18.5
Shooting MEM MIA
Field Goals Made 37.0 39.5
Field Goals Attempted 85.2 84.6
Field Goal % 43.5% 46.7%
2 Pointers Made 23.8 26.3
2 Pointers Attempted 45.6 49.6
2 Point Shooting % 52.2% 53.1%
3 Pointers Made 13.2 13.2
3 Pointers Attempted 39.6 35.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.4% 37.6%
Free Throws Made 14.9 18.5
Free Throws Attempted 19.5 22.5
Free Throw % 76.6% 82.0%
Ball Control MEM MIA
Rebounds 47.4 49.7
Rebounds - Defensive 36.1 39.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 10.7
Turnovers 14.0 12.9
Blocked Shots 5.6 4.2
Steals 6.7 7.6
Fouls 17.4 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Memphis

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MEM MIA
Total Possessions 99.7
Effective Scoring Chances 97.0 97.5
% of Possessions with MEM MIA
2 Point Attempt 40.5% 44.0%
3 Point Attempt 35.1% 31.1%
Player Fouled 15.9% 17.4%
Turnover 14.0% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MEM MIA
Shot Blocked 5.0% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 22.4% 22.8%