NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MEM LAL
Points 108.5 117.9
Total Points   226.4
Points From 2-Pointers 51.6 61.6
Points From 3-Pointers 42.9 37.1
Points From Free Throws 14.1 19.2
Shooting MEM LAL
Field Goals Made 40.1 43.2
Field Goals Attempted 92.8 84.5
Field Goal % 43.2% 51.1%
2 Pointers Made 25.8 30.8
2 Pointers Attempted 53.0 52.8
2 Point Shooting % 48.7% 58.3%
3 Pointers Made 14.3 12.4
3 Pointers Attempted 39.8 31.7
3 Point Shooting % 35.9% 39.0%
Free Throws Made 14.1 19.2
Free Throws Attempted 18.4 24.8
Free Throw % 76.6% 77.6%
Ball Control MEM LAL
Rebounds 47.9 50.3
Rebounds - Defensive 34.7 41.1
Rebounds - Offensive 13.2 9.2
Turnovers 13.4 14.2
Blocked Shots 5.9 6.3
Steals 8.3 7.1
Fouls 18.4 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: Memphis

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MEM LAL
Total Possessions 103.4
Effective Scoring Chances 103.2 98.5
% of Possessions with MEM LAL
2 Point Attempt 44.5% 45.9%
3 Point Attempt 33.4% 27.6%
Player Fouled 13.5% 17.8%
Turnover 12.9% 13.7%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MEM LAL
Shot Blocked 7.6% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 24.3% 21.0%