NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MEM DEN
Points 102.9 116.6
Total Points   219.6
Points From 2-Pointers 51.4 64.1
Points From 3-Pointers 34.2 36.6
Points From Free Throws 17.4 16.0
Shooting MEM DEN
Field Goals Made 37.1 44.2
Field Goals Attempted 88.3 88.0
Field Goal % 42.0% 50.2%
2 Pointers Made 25.7 32.0
2 Pointers Attempted 54.4 55.9
2 Point Shooting % 47.2% 57.3%
3 Pointers Made 11.4 12.2
3 Pointers Attempted 34.0 32.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.6% 37.9%
Free Throws Made 17.4 16.0
Free Throws Attempted 22.7 20.8
Free Throw % 76.6% 76.8%
Ball Control MEM DEN
Rebounds 46.8 52.5
Rebounds - Defensive 33.6 40.1
Rebounds - Offensive 13.2 12.4
Turnovers 12.3 12.5
Blocked Shots 5.6 7.1
Steals 7.0 6.9
Fouls 16.6 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: Memphis

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MEM DEN
Total Possessions 100.1
Effective Scoring Chances 101.0 100.0
% of Possessions with MEM DEN
2 Point Attempt 46.8% 48.7%
3 Point Attempt 29.3% 28.0%
Player Fouled 16.5% 16.6%
Turnover 12.3% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MEM DEN
Shot Blocked 8.2% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 24.8% 26.9%