NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MEM HOU
Points 107.6 115.0
Total Points   222.7
Points From 2-Pointers 50.7 55.8
Points From 3-Pointers 37.3 40.3
Points From Free Throws 19.6 19.0
Shooting MEM HOU
Field Goals Made 37.8 41.3
Field Goals Attempted 87.0 89.8
Field Goal % 43.4% 46.0%
2 Pointers Made 25.4 27.9
2 Pointers Attempted 49.5 52.4
2 Point Shooting % 51.3% 53.2%
3 Pointers Made 12.4 13.4
3 Pointers Attempted 37.5 37.4
3 Point Shooting % 33.1% 35.8%
Free Throws Made 19.6 19.0
Free Throws Attempted 25.6 24.8
Free Throw % 76.6% 76.8%
Ball Control MEM HOU
Rebounds 50.4 52.6
Rebounds - Defensive 37.3 38.9
Rebounds - Offensive 13.1 13.7
Turnovers 13.9 12.7
Blocked Shots 6.7 5.9
Steals 7.3 7.7
Fouls 18.1 18.8

Playing Style Advantage: Memphis

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MEM HOU
Total Possessions 102.8
Effective Scoring Chances 102.0 103.9
% of Possessions with MEM HOU
2 Point Attempt 41.8% 43.9%
3 Point Attempt 31.7% 31.4%
Player Fouled 18.3% 17.6%
Turnover 13.6% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken MEM HOU
Shot Blocked 6.7% 7.9%
Offensive Rebound 25.2% 27.0%