NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MEM HOU
Points 106.8 114.7
Total Points   221.4
Points From 2-Pointers 48.7 56.7
Points From 3-Pointers 38.2 39.0
Points From Free Throws 19.9 19.0
Shooting MEM HOU
Field Goals Made 37.1 41.3
Field Goals Attempted 86.0 90.0
Field Goal % 43.1% 45.9%
2 Pointers Made 24.4 28.4
2 Pointers Attempted 47.5 53.9
2 Point Shooting % 51.3% 52.6%
3 Pointers Made 12.7 13.0
3 Pointers Attempted 38.5 36.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.0% 36.0%
Free Throws Made 19.9 19.0
Free Throws Attempted 26.2 24.6
Free Throw % 75.8% 77.2%
Ball Control MEM HOU
Rebounds 49.6 53.5
Rebounds - Defensive 37.4 39.8
Rebounds - Offensive 12.2 13.7
Turnovers 14.0 12.7
Blocked Shots 6.6 5.8
Steals 7.1 7.8
Fouls 18.2 19.5

Playing Style Advantage: Memphis

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MEM HOU
Total Possessions 103.1
Effective Scoring Chances 101.3 104.1
% of Possessions with MEM HOU
2 Point Attempt 40.4% 45.2%
3 Point Attempt 32.8% 30.2%
Player Fouled 18.9% 17.7%
Turnover 13.6% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MEM HOU
Shot Blocked 6.6% 7.8%
Offensive Rebound 23.4% 26.8%