NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MEM PHO
Points 104.4 115.8
Total Points   220.1
Points From 2-Pointers 48.2 58.1
Points From 3-Pointers 39.9 38.6
Points From Free Throws 16.2 19.0
Shooting MEM PHO
Field Goals Made 37.4 41.9
Field Goals Attempted 90.4 83.7
Field Goal % 41.4% 50.1%
2 Pointers Made 24.1 29.0
2 Pointers Attempted 51.8 50.7
2 Point Shooting % 46.5% 57.2%
3 Pointers Made 13.3 12.9
3 Pointers Attempted 38.6 33.0
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 39.1%
Free Throws Made 16.2 19.0
Free Throws Attempted 21.2 23.6
Free Throw % 76.6% 80.7%
Ball Control MEM PHO
Rebounds 46.1 52.6
Rebounds - Defensive 32.4 41.2
Rebounds - Offensive 13.7 11.4
Turnovers 12.8 15.3
Blocked Shots 5.4 6.9
Steals 8.6 7.3
Fouls 18.0 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Memphis

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MEM PHO
Total Possessions 101.5
Effective Scoring Chances 102.3 97.7
% of Possessions with MEM PHO
2 Point Attempt 43.9% 44.1%
3 Point Attempt 32.7% 28.7%
Player Fouled 16.0% 17.7%
Turnover 12.6% 15.1%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MEM PHO
Shot Blocked 8.4% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 24.9% 26.1%