NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ATL MIL
Points 116.7 125.2
Total Points   241.9
Points From 2-Pointers 58.1 60.1
Points From 3-Pointers 40.3 46.3
Points From Free Throws 18.2 18.8
Shooting ATL MIL
Field Goals Made 42.5 45.5
Field Goals Attempted 92.9 87.8
Field Goal % 45.7% 51.8%
2 Pointers Made 29.1 30.0
2 Pointers Attempted 55.5 49.0
2 Point Shooting % 52.3% 61.3%
3 Pointers Made 13.4 15.4
3 Pointers Attempted 37.4 38.7
3 Point Shooting % 35.9% 39.9%
Free Throws Made 18.2 18.8
Free Throws Attempted 23.3 24.1
Free Throw % 78.3% 78.0%
Ball Control ATL MIL
Rebounds 48.1 49.7
Rebounds - Defensive 35.2 39.9
Rebounds - Offensive 12.9 9.9
Turnovers 10.6 11.9
Blocked Shots 3.7 5.0
Steals 6.3 6.2
Fouls 17.6 17.6

Playing Style Advantage: Atlanta

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ATL MIL
Total Possessions 104.0
Effective Scoring Chances 106.3 101.9
% of Possessions with ATL MIL
2 Point Attempt 46.7% 42.5%
3 Point Attempt 31.4% 33.6%
Player Fouled 16.9% 16.9%
Turnover 10.2% 11.5%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken ATL MIL
Shot Blocked 5.8% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 24.4% 21.9%