NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ATL MIL
Points 118.7 126.7
Total Points   245.4
Points From 2-Pointers 58.6 59.9
Points From 3-Pointers 41.1 47.5
Points From Free Throws 19.0 19.3
Shooting ATL MIL
Field Goals Made 43.0 45.8
Field Goals Attempted 93.9 88.1
Field Goal % 45.8% 52.0%
2 Pointers Made 29.3 29.9
2 Pointers Attempted 56.3 49.3
2 Point Shooting % 52.0% 60.8%
3 Pointers Made 13.7 15.8
3 Pointers Attempted 37.6 38.9
3 Point Shooting % 36.5% 40.7%
Free Throws Made 19.0 19.3
Free Throws Attempted 24.0 24.9
Free Throw % 79.2% 77.5%
Ball Control ATL MIL
Rebounds 48.8 49.7
Rebounds - Defensive 35.1 39.5
Rebounds - Offensive 13.7 10.2
Turnovers 10.3 11.9
Blocked Shots 4.0 4.9
Steals 6.4 6.0
Fouls 17.6 18.0

Playing Style Advantage: Atlanta

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ATL MIL
Total Possessions 104.4
Effective Scoring Chances 107.8 102.7
% of Possessions with ATL MIL
2 Point Attempt 46.9% 42.4%
3 Point Attempt 31.3% 33.4%
Player Fouled 17.2% 16.8%
Turnover 9.9% 11.4%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken ATL MIL
Shot Blocked 5.6% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 25.7% 22.5%