NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ATL MIA
Points 110.5 108.0
Total Points   218.5
Points From 2-Pointers 48.9 54.3
Points From 3-Pointers 43.2 36.5
Points From Free Throws 18.4 17.2
Shooting ATL MIA
Field Goals Made 38.9 39.3
Field Goals Attempted 84.0 84.4
Field Goal % 46.3% 46.6%
2 Pointers Made 24.5 27.2
2 Pointers Attempted 45.6 48.6
2 Point Shooting % 53.7% 55.9%
3 Pointers Made 14.4 12.2
3 Pointers Attempted 38.4 35.8
3 Point Shooting % 37.5% 34.0%
Free Throws Made 18.4 17.2
Free Throws Attempted 22.6 21.9
Free Throw % 81.2% 78.8%
Ball Control ATL MIA
Rebounds 49.6 44.9
Rebounds - Defensive 38.3 35.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 9.1
Turnovers 12.9 11.1
Blocked Shots 3.7 3.9
Steals 6.5 7.5
Fouls 18.5 17.7

Playing Style Advantage: Atlanta

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ATL MIA
Total Possessions 99.1
Effective Scoring Chances 97.6 97.1
% of Possessions with ATL MIA
2 Point Attempt 40.7% 44.3%
3 Point Attempt 34.3% 32.6%
Player Fouled 17.9% 18.7%
Turnover 13.0% 11.2%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken ATL MIA
Shot Blocked 4.7% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 24.1% 19.2%