NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ATL MIA
Points 115.0 116.2
Total Points   231.2
Points From 2-Pointers 54.9 57.8
Points From 3-Pointers 43.1 40.1
Points From Free Throws 17.0 18.3
Shooting ATL MIA
Field Goals Made 41.8 42.3
Field Goals Attempted 88.5 86.8
Field Goal % 47.2% 48.7%
2 Pointers Made 27.4 28.9
2 Pointers Attempted 49.2 52.4
2 Point Shooting % 55.8% 55.1%
3 Pointers Made 14.4 13.4
3 Pointers Attempted 39.3 34.3
3 Point Shooting % 36.5% 38.9%
Free Throws Made 17.0 18.3
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 22.7
Free Throw % 79.2% 80.8%
Ball Control ATL MIA
Rebounds 48.2 47.3
Rebounds - Defensive 35.9 36.7
Rebounds - Offensive 12.3 10.6
Turnovers 11.8 11.7
Blocked Shots 4.5 3.6
Steals 5.9 6.7
Fouls 16.9 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ATL MIA
Total Possessions 101.0
Effective Scoring Chances 101.5 99.9
% of Possessions with ATL MIA
2 Point Attempt 42.9% 46.2%
3 Point Attempt 34.3% 30.3%
Player Fouled 16.0% 16.7%
Turnover 11.7% 11.6%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken ATL MIA
Shot Blocked 4.2% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 25.0% 22.8%