NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ATL MIA
Points 114.6 116.3
Total Points   231.0
Points From 2-Pointers 54.4 57.7
Points From 3-Pointers 43.0 40.3
Points From Free Throws 17.2 18.3
Shooting ATL MIA
Field Goals Made 41.5 42.3
Field Goals Attempted 88.3 86.7
Field Goal % 47.1% 48.8%
2 Pointers Made 27.2 28.9
2 Pointers Attempted 49.1 52.2
2 Point Shooting % 55.5% 55.3%
3 Pointers Made 14.3 13.4
3 Pointers Attempted 39.2 34.5
3 Point Shooting % 36.5% 39.0%
Free Throws Made 17.2 18.3
Free Throws Attempted 21.6 22.7
Free Throw % 79.7% 80.8%
Ball Control ATL MIA
Rebounds 48.0 47.4
Rebounds - Defensive 35.8 36.7
Rebounds - Offensive 12.2 10.7
Turnovers 11.8 11.7
Blocked Shots 4.4 3.6
Steals 5.9 6.7
Fouls 16.9 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ATL MIA
Total Possessions 100.9
Effective Scoring Chances 101.3 99.8
% of Possessions with ATL MIA
2 Point Attempt 42.9% 46.1%
3 Point Attempt 34.2% 30.4%
Player Fouled 16.1% 16.8%
Turnover 11.7% 11.6%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken ATL MIA
Shot Blocked 4.2% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 24.9% 22.9%