NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ATL MIA
Points 112.1 117.4
Total Points   229.4
Points From 2-Pointers 54.5 57.6
Points From 3-Pointers 41.1 41.3
Points From Free Throws 16.5 18.5
Shooting ATL MIA
Field Goals Made 40.9 42.6
Field Goals Attempted 88.3 86.6
Field Goal % 46.3% 49.1%
2 Pointers Made 27.2 28.8
2 Pointers Attempted 49.2 51.3
2 Point Shooting % 55.4% 56.1%
3 Pointers Made 13.7 13.8
3 Pointers Attempted 39.2 35.3
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 39.0%
Free Throws Made 16.5 18.5
Free Throws Attempted 21.1 22.7
Free Throw % 78.3% 81.5%
Ball Control ATL MIA
Rebounds 47.8 48.0
Rebounds - Defensive 35.9 37.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.9 10.2
Turnovers 12.4 11.8
Blocked Shots 4.0 3.6
Steals 5.8 7.1
Fouls 17.4 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Atlanta

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ATL MIA
Total Possessions 101.5
Effective Scoring Chances 101.1 99.9
% of Possessions with ATL MIA
2 Point Attempt 42.8% 45.3%
3 Point Attempt 34.1% 31.2%
Player Fouled 16.0% 17.1%
Turnover 12.2% 11.6%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 5.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken ATL MIA
Shot Blocked 4.2% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 24.0% 22.1%