NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ATL IND
Points 123.3 129.5
Total Points   252.8
Points From 2-Pointers 66.4 70.5
Points From 3-Pointers 33.9 42.3
Points From Free Throws 23.0 16.7
Shooting ATL IND
Field Goals Made 44.5 49.3
Field Goals Attempted 91.6 91.9
Field Goal % 48.6% 53.7%
2 Pointers Made 33.2 35.3
2 Pointers Attempted 61.1 56.7
2 Point Shooting % 54.4% 62.1%
3 Pointers Made 11.3 14.1
3 Pointers Attempted 30.5 35.2
3 Point Shooting % 37.0% 40.1%
Free Throws Made 23.0 16.7
Free Throws Attempted 28.9 21.8
Free Throw % 79.7% 76.8%
Ball Control ATL IND
Rebounds 48.7 46.2
Rebounds - Defensive 34.1 35.2
Rebounds - Offensive 14.6 11.0
Turnovers 12.0 12.2
Blocked Shots 4.8 6.3
Steals 6.2 6.8
Fouls 16.7 19.7

Playing Style Advantage: Atlanta

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ATL IND
Total Possessions 105.6
Effective Scoring Chances 108.2 104.4
% of Possessions with ATL IND
2 Point Attempt 49.7% 47.9%
3 Point Attempt 24.9% 29.7%
Player Fouled 18.7% 15.8%
Turnover 11.4% 11.5%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken ATL IND
Shot Blocked 7.0% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 29.3% 24.4%