NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ATL NO
Points 114.6 122.9
Total Points   237.5
Points From 2-Pointers 52.7 64.6
Points From 3-Pointers 43.3 40.2
Points From Free Throws 18.7 18.1
Shooting ATL NO
Field Goals Made 40.8 45.7
Field Goals Attempted 90.1 87.9
Field Goal % 45.3% 52.0%
2 Pointers Made 26.3 32.3
2 Pointers Attempted 49.0 54.4
2 Point Shooting % 53.8% 59.4%
3 Pointers Made 14.4 13.4
3 Pointers Attempted 41.1 33.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 40.0%
Free Throws Made 18.7 18.1
Free Throws Attempted 23.4 23.5
Free Throw % 79.7% 76.9%
Ball Control ATL NO
Rebounds 47.0 49.4
Rebounds - Defensive 33.4 37.8
Rebounds - Offensive 13.6 11.5
Turnovers 12.2 12.3
Blocked Shots 4.7 5.2
Steals 6.0 7.3
Fouls 16.4 17.2

Playing Style Advantage: Atlanta

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ATL NO
Total Possessions 102.4
Effective Scoring Chances 103.8 101.6
% of Possessions with ATL NO
2 Point Attempt 41.5% 47.0%
3 Point Attempt 34.8% 28.9%
Player Fouled 16.8% 16.0%
Turnover 11.9% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken ATL NO
Shot Blocked 6.0% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 26.4% 25.7%