NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ATL HOU
Points 118.9 122.2
Total Points   241.2
Points From 2-Pointers 57.2 61.8
Points From 3-Pointers 39.4 41.3
Points From Free Throws 22.3 19.1
Shooting ATL HOU
Field Goals Made 41.8 44.7
Field Goals Attempted 90.5 91.4
Field Goal % 46.2% 48.8%
2 Pointers Made 28.6 30.9
2 Pointers Attempted 52.8 54.9
2 Point Shooting % 54.2% 56.2%
3 Pointers Made 13.1 13.8
3 Pointers Attempted 37.6 36.5
3 Point Shooting % 34.9% 37.7%
Free Throws Made 22.3 19.1
Free Throws Attempted 28.1 24.8
Free Throw % 79.2% 77.2%
Ball Control ATL HOU
Rebounds 50.6 50.6
Rebounds - Defensive 36.3 37.3
Rebounds - Offensive 14.3 13.3
Turnovers 11.8 11.9
Blocked Shots 5.1 5.0
Steals 6.6 7.0
Fouls 17.6 19.3

Playing Style Advantage: Atlanta

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ATL HOU
Total Possessions 104.5
Effective Scoring Chances 107.0 105.9
% of Possessions with ATL HOU
2 Point Attempt 43.7% 45.8%
3 Point Attempt 31.2% 30.5%
Player Fouled 18.4% 16.9%
Turnover 11.2% 11.4%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken ATL HOU
Shot Blocked 5.6% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 27.7% 26.8%