NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA MIL
Points 109.6 112.0
Total Points   221.6
Points From 2-Pointers 54.4 52.4
Points From 3-Pointers 37.3 43.3
Points From Free Throws 17.9 16.4
Shooting MIA MIL
Field Goals Made 39.6 40.6
Field Goals Attempted 87.6 84.9
Field Goal % 45.2% 47.8%
2 Pointers Made 27.2 26.2
2 Pointers Attempted 53.1 44.7
2 Point Shooting % 51.3% 58.6%
3 Pointers Made 12.4 14.4
3 Pointers Attempted 34.5 40.2
3 Point Shooting % 36.0% 35.9%
Free Throws Made 17.9 16.4
Free Throws Attempted 21.8 21.1
Free Throw % 82.0% 78.0%
Ball Control MIA MIL
Rebounds 47.6 48.9
Rebounds - Defensive 37.7 39.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 9.1
Turnovers 10.1 11.8
Blocked Shots 2.8 4.3
Steals 6.5 5.4
Fouls 16.2 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA MIL
Total Possessions 100.3
Effective Scoring Chances 100.1 97.5
% of Possessions with MIA MIL
2 Point Attempt 47.4% 40.4%
3 Point Attempt 30.9% 36.4%
Player Fouled 17.3% 16.2%
Turnover 10.1% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 5.4% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA MIL
Shot Blocked 5.1% 3.2%
Offensive Rebound 19.9% 19.4%