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Miami at Milwaukee
Sat Dec 4, 2021
8:00pm ET
Milwaukee, WI
Miami at Milwaukee: Point Spread Analysis
Odds: Milwaukee by 6.5, Total Points: 211
ATS Situational Trends
| Record | MIA | adv | MIL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 43-41-2 | 36-47-1 | |
| vs Division | 9-6-1 | 6-13-0 | |
| vs Conference | 29-25-2 | 26-27-1 | |
| Streak | W1 | L1 | |
| Last 5 | 3-2-0 | 2-3-0 | |
| Last 10 | 7-3-0 | 3-7-0 | |
| Home | 17-25-0 | 20-22-1 | |
| Away | 26-16-2 | 16-25-0 |
Miami Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/25 | Home | Detroit | -9.5 | W by 1 | -8.5 |
| 10/27 | Away | Boston | +8.5 | L by 8 | +0.5 |
| 10/28 | Away | Minnesota | +8.5 | L by 16 | -7.5 |
| 10/30 | Away | Milwaukee | +7.5 | L by 8 | -0.5 |
| 11/01 | Home | Brooklyn | -7.0 | L by 4 | -11.0 |
| 11/03 | Home | Washington | -8.5 | W by 7 | -1.5 |
| 11/06 | Home | LA Lakers | -1.5 | W by 1 | -0.5 |
| 11/08 | Away | Memphis | -1.5 | W by 6 | +4.5 |
| 11/11 | Away | Atlanta | +7.5 | W by 8 | +15.5 |
| 11/12 | Away | San Antonio | -2.0 | W by 5 | +3.0 |
| 11/14 | Away | Charlotte | -6.5 | W by 6 | -0.5 |
| 11/16 | Home | Brooklyn | -3.5 | W by 7 | +3.5 |
| 11/18 | Away | Chicago | -1.5 | L by 5 | -6.5 |
| 11/20 | Away | Chicago | -1.5 | W by 18 | +16.5 |
| 11/22 | Away | Cleveland | +1.5 | W by 33 | +34.5 |
| 11/24 | Away | New York | +5.5 | L by 2 | +3.5 |
| 11/25 | Away | Brooklyn | +7.5 | L by 15 | -7.5 |
| 11/28 | Home | Milwaukee | +4.0 | L by 7 | -3.0 |
| 11/30 | Home | Indiana | -4.0 | W by 10 | +6.0 |
| 12/02 | Home | Indiana | -4.5 | L by 15 | -19.5 |
| 12/06 | Away | Toronto | +4.0 | W by 9 | +13.0 |
| 12/08 | Home | Cleveland | +1.5 | L by 12 | -10.5 |
| 12/11 | Away | Charlotte | -4.5 | W by 2 | -2.5 |
| 12/13 | Home | Charlotte | -7.5 | W by 11 | +3.5 |
| 12/14 | Home | Chicago | -3.5 | L by 8 | -11.5 |
| 12/16 | Home | Chicago | -4.5 | W by 2 | -2.5 |
| 12/18 | Home | Minnesota | +1.5 | L by 4 | -2.5 |
| 12/20 | Away | Orlando | +5.5 | W by 9 | +14.5 |
| 12/22 | Home | Atlanta | -1.0 | W by 9 | +8.0 |
| 12/25 | Home | Philadelphia | -2.0 | W by 6 | +4.0 |
| 12/28 | Away | Golden State | +6.5 | W by 12 | +18.5 |
| 12/30 | Away | Utah | -3.0 | L by 8 | -11.0 |
| 01/01 | Away | LA Clippers | +8.0 | L by 17 | -9.0 |
| 01/03 | Away | LA Lakers | +5.0 | W by 14 | +19.0 |
| 01/05 | Away | Phoenix | +2.5 | L by 16 | -13.5 |
| 01/08 | Home | Houston | -4.0 | W by 7 | +3.0 |
| 01/10 | Home | Okla City | +4.5 | L by 8 | -3.5 |
| 01/12 | Home | Orlando | -1.0 | W by 3 | +2.0 |
| 01/14 | Home | Charlotte | -8.5 | W by 17 | +8.5 |
| 01/15 | Away | Brooklyn | -1.0 | W by 1 | 0.0 |
| 01/17 | Away | Toronto | -3.0 | L by 24 | -27.0 |
| 01/19 | Home | Atlanta | -7.0 | L by 1 | -8.0 |
| 01/21 | Away | Orlando | +1.0 | L by 18 | -17.0 |
| 01/24 | Home | Memphis | -11.5 | L by 9 | -20.5 |
| 01/25 | Home | Boston | +8.5 | L by 33 | -24.5 |
| 01/27 | Away | New York | +4.5 | L by 16 | -11.5 |
| 01/29 | Home | Phoenix | -2.0 | L by 13 | -15.0 |
| 01/31 | Home | Sacramento | -2.5 | W by 9 | +6.5 |
| 02/02 | Away | Washington | -7.5 | W by 8 | +0.5 |
| 02/04 | Home | LA Clippers | +5.0 | L by 8 | -3.0 |
| 02/06 | Home | Orlando | -3.5 | W by 26 | +22.5 |
| 02/07 | Home | San Antonio | -8.0 | W by 12 | +4.0 |
| 02/11 | Home | Boston | +8.0 | L by 4 | +4.0 |
| 02/13 | Away | Milwaukee | +7.0 | W by 26 | +33.0 |
| 02/14 | Away | Philadelphia | +2.5 | W by 5 | +7.5 |
| 02/23 | Away | New Orleans | +2.0 | W by 11 | +13.0 |
| 02/26 | Away | Sacramento | +7.5 | W by 11 | +18.5 |
| 02/27 | Away | Portland | -6.5 | W by 10 | +3.5 |
| 02/29 | Away | Denver | +6.5 | L by 6 | +0.5 |
| 03/02 | Home | Utah | -9.0 | W by 6 | -3.0 |
| 03/05 | Home | Detroit | -11.0 | W by 8 | -3.0 |
| 03/07 | Away | Dallas | +4.5 | L by 6 | -1.5 |
| 03/08 | Away | Okla City | +8.5 | L by 7 | +1.5 |
| 03/10 | Home | Washington | -11.5 | L by 2 | -13.5 |
| 03/13 | Home | Denver | +3.5 | L by 12 | -8.5 |
| 03/15 | Away | Detroit | -7.5 | W by 13 | +5.5 |
| 03/17 | Away | Detroit | -5.5 | W by 3 | -2.5 |
| 03/18 | Away | Philadelphia | +3.0 | L by 7 | -4.0 |
| 03/20 | Away | Cleveland | +3.0 | W by 3 | +6.0 |
| 03/22 | Home | New Orleans | -3.0 | L by 23 | -26.0 |
| 03/24 | Home | Cleveland | -3.5 | W by 37 | +33.5 |
| 03/26 | Home | Golden State | +5.0 | L by 21 | -16.0 |
| 03/29 | Home | Portland | -14.0 | W by 60 | +46.0 |
| 03/31 | Away | Washington | -12.0 | W by 12 | 0.0 |
| 04/02 | Home | New York | -2.5 | W by 10 | +7.5 |
| 04/04 | Home | Philadelphia | -3.0 | L by 4 | -7.0 |
| 04/05 | Away | Houston | -3.0 | W by 15 | +12.0 |
| 04/07 | Away | Indiana | +3.0 | L by 2 | +1.0 |
| 04/09 | Away | Atlanta | -3.5 | W by 6 | +2.5 |
| 04/10 | Home | Dallas | +2.5 | L by 19 | -16.5 |
| 04/12 | Home | Toronto | -14.0 | W by 22 | +8.0 |
| 04/14 | Home | Toronto | -16.0 | W by 15 | -1.0 |
| 04/17 | Away | Philadelphia | +5.5 | L by 1 | +4.5 |
| 04/19 | Home | Chicago | -2.0 | W by 21 | +19.0 |
| 04/21 | Away | Boston | +14.5 | L by 20 | -5.5 |
| 04/24 | Away | Boston | +14.0 | W by 10 | +24.0 |
Milwaukee Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/26 | Home | Philadelphia | -6.0 | W by 1 | -5.0 |
| 10/29 | Home | Atlanta | -6.0 | L by 17 | -23.0 |
| 10/30 | Home | Miami | -7.5 | W by 8 | +0.5 |
| 11/01 | Away | Toronto | -4.0 | L by 19 | -23.0 |
| 11/03 | Home | New York | -5.0 | W by 5 | 0.0 |
| 11/06 | Away | Brooklyn | -5.0 | W by 4 | -1.0 |
| 11/08 | Home | Detroit | -12.0 | W by 2 | -10.0 |
| 11/09 | Away | Indiana | -1.0 | L by 2 | -3.0 |
| 11/11 | Away | Orlando | -2.0 | L by 15 | -17.0 |
| 11/13 | Home | Chicago | -9.5 | W by 9 | -0.5 |
| 11/15 | Away | Toronto | -1.5 | W by 16 | +14.5 |
| 11/17 | Away | Charlotte | -8.0 | W by 31 | +23.0 |
| 11/18 | Home | Dallas | -2.0 | W by 7 | +5.0 |
| 11/20 | Away | Washington | -9.5 | W by 13 | +3.5 |
| 11/22 | Away | Boston | +6.0 | L by 3 | +3.0 |
| 11/24 | Home | Washington | -13.5 | W by 3 | -10.5 |
| 11/26 | Home | Portland | -13.0 | W by 6 | -7.0 |
| 11/28 | Away | Miami | -4.0 | W by 7 | +3.0 |
| 11/30 | Away | Chicago | -10.5 | L by 7 | -17.5 |
| 12/02 | Home | Atlanta | -6.0 | W by 11 | +5.0 |
| 12/05 | Home | New York | -4.5 | W by 24 | +19.5 |
| 12/07 | Neutral | Indiana | -5.0 | L by 9 | -14.0 |
| 12/11 | Home | Chicago | -11.5 | W by 4 | -7.5 |
| 12/13 | Home | Indiana | -6.5 | W by 14 | +7.5 |
| 12/16 | Home | Detroit | -16.5 | W by 32 | +15.5 |
| 12/17 | Home | Houston | -7.0 | W by 9 | +2.0 |
| 12/19 | Home | San Antonio | -16.5 | W by 13 | -3.5 |
| 12/21 | Home | Orlando | -8.5 | W by 4 | -4.5 |
| 12/23 | Away | New York | -2.0 | W by 19 | +17.0 |
| 12/25 | Away | New York | -3.5 | L by 7 | -10.5 |
| 12/27 | Away | Brooklyn | -10.0 | W by 22 | +12.0 |
| 12/29 | Away | Cleveland | -5.0 | W by 8 | +3.0 |
| 01/01 | Home | Indiana | -8.0 | L by 9 | -17.0 |
| 01/03 | Away | Indiana | -3.5 | L by 12 | -15.5 |
| 01/04 | Away | San Antonio | -11.0 | W by 4 | -7.0 |
| 01/06 | Away | Houston | -7.0 | L by 4 | -11.0 |
| 01/08 | Home | Utah | -8.0 | L by 16 | -24.0 |
| 01/11 | Home | Boston | -2.0 | W by 33 | +31.0 |
| 01/13 | Home | Golden State | -13.5 | W by 11 | -2.5 |
| 01/14 | Home | Sacramento | -4.0 | W by 1 | -3.0 |
| 01/17 | Away | Cleveland | +2.0 | L by 40 | -38.0 |
| 01/20 | Away | Detroit | -13.5 | W by 6 | -7.5 |
| 01/22 | Away | Detroit | -12.5 | W by 9 | -3.5 |
| 01/24 | Home | Cleveland | -6.5 | W by 10 | +3.5 |
| 01/26 | Home | Cleveland | -5.5 | L by 12 | -17.5 |
| 01/27 | Home | New Orleans | -3.5 | W by 24 | +20.5 |
| 01/29 | Away | Denver | +4.0 | L by 6 | -2.0 |
| 01/31 | Away | Portland | -10.5 | L by 3 | -13.5 |
| 02/03 | Away | Dallas | -3.5 | W by 12 | +8.5 |
| 02/04 | Away | Utah | +2.5 | L by 15 | -12.5 |
| 02/06 | Away | Phoenix | +5.5 | L by 8 | -2.5 |
| 02/08 | Home | Minnesota | +2.0 | L by 24 | -22.0 |
| 02/09 | Home | Charlotte | -16.0 | W by 36 | +20.0 |
| 02/12 | Home | Denver | -1.0 | W by 17 | +16.0 |
| 02/13 | Home | Miami | -7.0 | L by 26 | -33.0 |
| 02/15 | Away | Memphis | -14.0 | L by 3 | -17.0 |
| 02/23 | Away | Minnesota | +4.0 | W by 5 | +9.0 |
| 02/25 | Away | Philadelphia | -4.5 | W by 21 | +16.5 |
| 02/27 | Home | Charlotte | -14.0 | W by 38 | +24.0 |
| 02/29 | Away | Charlotte | -11.5 | W by 12 | +0.5 |
| 03/01 | Away | Chicago | -3.5 | W by 16 | +12.5 |
| 03/04 | Home | LA Clippers | +3.0 | W by 7 | +10.0 |
| 03/06 | Away | Golden State | +2.5 | L by 35 | -32.5 |
| 03/08 | Away | LA Lakers | -4.0 | L by 1 | -5.0 |
| 03/10 | Away | LA Clippers | -6.5 | W by 7 | +0.5 |
| 03/12 | Away | Sacramento | +1.5 | L by 35 | -33.5 |
| 03/14 | Home | Philadelphia | -7.0 | W by 9 | +2.0 |
| 03/17 | Home | Phoenix | +2.5 | W by 11 | +13.5 |
| 03/20 | Away | Boston | +10.5 | L by 3 | +7.5 |
| 03/21 | Home | Brooklyn | -9.5 | W by 7 | -2.5 |
| 03/24 | Home | Okla City | -2.5 | W by 25 | +22.5 |
| 03/26 | Home | LA Lakers | -9.5 | L by 4 | -13.5 |
| 03/28 | Away | New Orleans | -2.0 | L by 7 | -9.0 |
| 03/30 | Away | Atlanta | -4.5 | W by 9 | +4.5 |
| 04/02 | Away | Washington | -13.0 | L by 4 | -17.0 |
| 04/03 | Home | Memphis | -12.5 | L by 10 | -22.5 |
| 04/05 | Home | Toronto | -14.5 | L by 6 | -20.5 |
| 04/07 | Home | New York | -4.5 | L by 13 | -17.5 |
| 04/09 | Home | Boston | -3.5 | W by 13 | +9.5 |
| 04/10 | Home | Orlando | +1.5 | W by 18 | +19.5 |
| 04/12 | Away | Okla City | +14.0 | L by 18 | -4.0 |
| 04/14 | Away | Orlando | +6.0 | L by 25 | -19.0 |
| 04/21 | Home | Indiana | +1.5 | W by 15 | +16.5 |
| 04/23 | Home | Indiana | -1.0 | L by 17 | -18.0 |
| MIL -6.5 | Open | -9.0 | High | -9.0 |
| Last | -7.0 | Low | -5.0 |
Line Movement
The chart above graphs odds data from a leading global sportsbook. Chart times are your local time zone.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Lines
Since the start of the 2016-2017 NBA season there have been 991 games where the closing line favored the home team by 5.5 to 7.5 points. In these games:
- The team like Milwaukee won the game 691 times (69.7%).
- The team like Miami won the game 300 times (30.3%).
- The team like Miami did better against the spread, going 493-478-20 (50.8% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.6 points.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Line Movement
Since the start of the 2018-2019 NBA season there have been 157 games where the closing line favored the initial favorite by 2.5 points less than the opening line.
In these games, the team like Milwaukee did better against the spread, going 78-77-2 (50.3% ATS).
Spread History
The table below lists odds from three leading global sportsbooks. Times below are Eastern time zone.
| Book 1 | Book 2 | Book 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | -6.5 | -6.5 | -6.5 |
| Open | -6.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 |
| History | |||
| 12/04 08:07 PM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 07:54 PM | -- | -6.5 | -- |
| 12/04 07:49 PM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 07:45 PM | -- | -- | -6.5 |
| 12/04 07:19 PM | -7.0 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 07:14 PM | -- | -7.0 | -- |
| 12/04 07:05 PM | -- | -- | -7.0 |
| 12/04 06:45 PM | -- | -- | -6.5 |
| 12/04 06:40 PM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 06:34 PM | -- | -6.0 | -- |
| 12/04 06:01 PM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 05:19 PM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 05:15 PM | -- | -- | -6.5 |
| 12/04 04:43 PM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 04:16 PM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 03:37 PM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 02:58 PM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 02:40 PM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 02:13 PM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 01:37 PM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 12:54 PM | -- | -6.5 | -- |
| 12/04 12:28 PM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 12:07 PM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 11:43 AM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 11:25 AM | -- | -- | -6.5 |
| 12/04 11:24 AM | -- | -7.0 | -- |
| 12/04 11:13 AM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 10:46 AM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 10:04 AM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 09:46 AM | -6.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/04 09:35 AM | -- | -- | -6.5 |
| 12/04 09:34 AM | -- | -6.5 | -- |
| 12/04 09:05 AM | -- | -- | -5.5 |
| 12/04 04:44 AM | -- | -5.5 | -- |
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