NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA MIL
Points 109.4 112.1
Total Points   221.5
Points From 2-Pointers 54.3 52.5
Points From 3-Pointers 37.1 43.1
Points From Free Throws 18.0 16.5
Shooting MIA MIL
Field Goals Made 39.5 40.6
Field Goals Attempted 87.6 84.9
Field Goal % 45.1% 47.9%
2 Pointers Made 27.2 26.3
2 Pointers Attempted 53.1 44.7
2 Point Shooting % 51.1% 58.7%
3 Pointers Made 12.4 14.4
3 Pointers Attempted 34.5 40.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.8% 35.8%
Free Throws Made 18.0 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 21.9 21.2
Free Throw % 82.0% 77.7%
Ball Control MIA MIL
Rebounds 47.6 49.0
Rebounds - Defensive 37.7 39.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 9.1
Turnovers 10.2 11.9
Blocked Shots 2.8 4.3
Steals 6.6 5.4
Fouls 16.2 17.5

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA MIL
Total Possessions 100.4
Effective Scoring Chances 100.2 97.6
% of Possessions with MIA MIL
2 Point Attempt 47.4% 40.4%
3 Point Attempt 30.8% 36.3%
Player Fouled 17.4% 16.2%
Turnover 10.1% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 5.4% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA MIL
Shot Blocked 5.1% 3.2%
Offensive Rebound 20.0% 19.5%