NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA CHI
Points 110.8 108.6
Total Points   219.5
Points From 2-Pointers 49.3 58.4
Points From 3-Pointers 42.8 35.1
Points From Free Throws 18.7 15.1
Shooting MIA CHI
Field Goals Made 38.9 40.9
Field Goals Attempted 83.8 87.0
Field Goal % 46.5% 47.1%
2 Pointers Made 24.7 29.2
2 Pointers Attempted 45.8 52.9
2 Point Shooting % 53.9% 55.2%
3 Pointers Made 14.3 11.7
3 Pointers Attempted 38.0 34.1
3 Point Shooting % 37.5% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 18.7 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 22.9 19.0
Free Throw % 81.9% 79.2%
Ball Control MIA CHI
Rebounds 47.2 47.5
Rebounds - Defensive 37.4 36.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 10.6
Turnovers 11.8 11.2
Blocked Shots 3.0 4.5
Steals 6.3 6.4
Fouls 15.7 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA CHI
Total Possessions 99.0
Effective Scoring Chances 97.0 98.4
% of Possessions with MIA CHI
2 Point Attempt 41.4% 47.7%
3 Point Attempt 34.4% 30.7%
Player Fouled 17.6% 15.9%
Turnover 11.9% 11.3%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA CHI
Shot Blocked 5.2% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 21.0% 22.1%