NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA CHI
Points 109.5 109.7
Total Points   219.3
Points From 2-Pointers 50.3 57.4
Points From 3-Pointers 40.7 36.9
Points From Free Throws 18.5 15.5
Shooting MIA CHI
Field Goals Made 38.7 41.0
Field Goals Attempted 84.7 86.5
Field Goal % 45.7% 47.4%
2 Pointers Made 25.2 28.7
2 Pointers Attempted 46.9 51.8
2 Point Shooting % 53.6% 55.4%
3 Pointers Made 13.6 12.3
3 Pointers Attempted 37.8 34.7
3 Point Shooting % 35.9% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 18.5 15.5
Free Throws Attempted 22.8 19.4
Free Throw % 80.8% 80.1%
Ball Control MIA CHI
Rebounds 47.8 47.6
Rebounds - Defensive 37.1 37.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 10.3
Turnovers 11.5 11.1
Blocked Shots 3.1 4.6
Steals 6.1 6.0
Fouls 16.1 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA CHI
Total Possessions 98.8
Effective Scoring Chances 97.9 98.0
% of Possessions with MIA CHI
2 Point Attempt 42.2% 46.9%
3 Point Attempt 34.0% 31.4%
Player Fouled 17.5% 16.3%
Turnover 11.7% 11.2%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA CHI
Shot Blocked 5.4% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 22.2% 21.7%