NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA CLE
Points 105.0 109.1
Total Points   214.1
Points From 2-Pointers 53.0 51.7
Points From 3-Pointers 34.5 43.2
Points From Free Throws 17.4 14.2
Shooting MIA CLE
Field Goals Made 38.0 40.3
Field Goals Attempted 84.4 84.2
Field Goal % 45.0% 47.8%
2 Pointers Made 26.5 25.9
2 Pointers Attempted 52.5 44.3
2 Point Shooting % 50.5% 58.3%
3 Pointers Made 11.5 14.4
3 Pointers Attempted 31.9 39.8
3 Point Shooting % 36.1% 36.1%
Free Throws Made 17.4 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 21.5 18.7
Free Throw % 80.8% 75.9%
Ball Control MIA CLE
Rebounds 46.5 48.0
Rebounds - Defensive 36.5 38.3
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 9.7
Turnovers 11.2 12.4
Blocked Shots 3.2 4.3
Steals 7.1 5.7
Fouls 15.9 16.4

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA CLE
Total Possessions 98.1
Effective Scoring Chances 96.8 95.4
% of Possessions with MIA CLE
2 Point Attempt 47.9% 40.6%
3 Point Attempt 29.0% 36.5%
Player Fouled 16.7% 16.2%
Turnover 11.4% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA CLE
Shot Blocked 5.2% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 20.6% 21.0%