NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA CLE
Points 120.6 104.3
Total Points   224.9
Points From 2-Pointers 62.8 53.1
Points From 3-Pointers 40.4 36.0
Points From Free Throws 17.4 15.2
Shooting MIA CLE
Field Goals Made 44.9 38.5
Field Goals Attempted 85.5 86.8
Field Goal % 52.5% 44.4%
2 Pointers Made 31.4 26.6
2 Pointers Attempted 50.8 52.2
2 Point Shooting % 61.9% 50.8%
3 Pointers Made 13.5 12.0
3 Pointers Attempted 34.7 34.5
3 Point Shooting % 38.9% 34.7%
Free Throws Made 17.4 15.2
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 20.2
Free Throw % 81.2% 75.4%
Ball Control MIA CLE
Rebounds 46.6 46.5
Rebounds - Defensive 37.8 34.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 12.5
Turnovers 11.4 14.8
Blocked Shots 5.9 2.7
Steals 8.5 6.0
Fouls 16.9 17.8

Playing Style Advantage: Cleveland

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA CLE
Total Possessions 100.9
Effective Scoring Chances 98.2 98.6
% of Possessions with MIA CLE
2 Point Attempt 45.9% 45.1%
3 Point Attempt 31.3% 29.8%
Player Fouled 17.6% 16.7%
Turnover 11.3% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA CLE
Shot Blocked 3.2% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 20.5% 24.8%