NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA CLE
Points 107.3 108.1
Total Points   215.4
Points From 2-Pointers 52.5 52.5
Points From 3-Pointers 37.6 41.2
Points From Free Throws 17.2 14.3
Shooting MIA CLE
Field Goals Made 38.8 40.0
Field Goals Attempted 84.7 84.2
Field Goal % 45.8% 47.5%
2 Pointers Made 26.2 26.3
2 Pointers Attempted 51.5 45.3
2 Point Shooting % 51.0% 58.0%
3 Pointers Made 12.5 13.7
3 Pointers Attempted 33.2 38.9
3 Point Shooting % 37.7% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 17.2 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 21.1 18.8
Free Throw % 81.5% 76.1%
Ball Control MIA CLE
Rebounds 46.9 47.3
Rebounds - Defensive 37.0 37.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 9.6
Turnovers 11.5 12.6
Blocked Shots 3.2 3.9
Steals 7.3 5.9
Fouls 16.1 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA CLE
Total Possessions 98.6
Effective Scoring Chances 97.0 95.5
% of Possessions with MIA CLE
2 Point Attempt 46.7% 41.4%
3 Point Attempt 30.2% 35.6%
Player Fouled 16.1% 16.3%
Turnover 11.7% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA CLE
Shot Blocked 4.7% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 20.8% 20.6%