NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA BOS
Points 104.1 114.2
Total Points   218.4
Points From 2-Pointers 50.8 50.1
Points From 3-Pointers 39.0 50.0
Points From Free Throws 14.4 14.2
Shooting MIA BOS
Field Goals Made 38.4 41.7
Field Goals Attempted 90.6 87.7
Field Goal % 42.4% 47.5%
2 Pointers Made 25.4 25.0
2 Pointers Attempted 54.0 42.8
2 Point Shooting % 47.0% 58.4%
3 Pointers Made 13.0 16.7
3 Pointers Attempted 36.6 44.8
3 Point Shooting % 35.5% 37.1%
Free Throws Made 14.4 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 17.7 17.9
Free Throw % 81.5% 79.1%
Ball Control MIA BOS
Rebounds 48.8 52.3
Rebounds - Defensive 37.2 41.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 10.7
Turnovers 10.2 10.9
Blocked Shots 2.5 5.8
Steals 5.7 5.4
Fouls 14.4 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA BOS
Total Possessions 98.8
Effective Scoring Chances 100.2 98.7
% of Possessions with MIA BOS
2 Point Attempt 47.9% 38.8%
3 Point Attempt 32.4% 40.6%
Player Fouled 14.8% 14.5%
Turnover 10.3% 11.0%
Opponent Steal 5.5% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA BOS
Shot Blocked 6.7% 2.9%
Offensive Rebound 21.8% 22.3%