NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA BOS
Points 104.1 114.2
Total Points   218.3
Points From 2-Pointers 50.9 49.4
Points From 3-Pointers 39.0 50.7
Points From Free Throws 14.2 14.1
Shooting MIA BOS
Field Goals Made 38.4 41.6
Field Goals Attempted 90.3 87.6
Field Goal % 42.6% 47.5%
2 Pointers Made 25.4 24.7
2 Pointers Attempted 53.8 42.4
2 Point Shooting % 47.3% 58.3%
3 Pointers Made 13.0 16.9
3 Pointers Attempted 36.5 45.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.6% 37.4%
Free Throws Made 14.2 14.1
Free Throws Attempted 17.3 17.8
Free Throw % 82.0% 79.2%
Ball Control MIA BOS
Rebounds 48.5 52.1
Rebounds - Defensive 37.2 41.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 10.7
Turnovers 10.2 10.8
Blocked Shots 2.5 5.8
Steals 5.6 5.5
Fouls 14.2 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA BOS
Total Possessions 98.6
Effective Scoring Chances 99.7 98.5
% of Possessions with MIA BOS
2 Point Attempt 47.9% 38.5%
3 Point Attempt 32.5% 40.9%
Player Fouled 14.6% 14.4%
Turnover 10.4% 11.0%
Opponent Steal 5.6% 5.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA BOS
Shot Blocked 6.7% 2.9%
Offensive Rebound 21.5% 22.3%