NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA BOS
Points 104.1 113.9
Total Points   218.1
Points From 2-Pointers 50.7 49.8
Points From 3-Pointers 39.0 50.0
Points From Free Throws 14.4 14.1
Shooting MIA BOS
Field Goals Made 38.4 41.6
Field Goals Attempted 90.5 87.8
Field Goal % 42.4% 47.4%
2 Pointers Made 25.4 24.9
2 Pointers Attempted 54.1 42.7
2 Point Shooting % 46.9% 58.3%
3 Pointers Made 13.0 16.7
3 Pointers Attempted 36.5 45.0
3 Point Shooting % 35.6% 37.0%
Free Throws Made 14.4 14.1
Free Throws Attempted 17.7 17.8
Free Throw % 81.7% 79.1%
Ball Control MIA BOS
Rebounds 49.0 52.3
Rebounds - Defensive 37.4 41.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 10.7
Turnovers 10.2 10.9
Blocked Shots 2.6 5.8
Steals 5.7 5.5
Fouls 14.3 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA BOS
Total Possessions 98.8
Effective Scoring Chances 100.2 98.6
% of Possessions with MIA BOS
2 Point Attempt 48.0% 38.7%
3 Point Attempt 32.4% 40.7%
Player Fouled 14.8% 14.5%
Turnover 10.3% 11.0%
Opponent Steal 5.5% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA BOS
Shot Blocked 6.7% 2.9%
Offensive Rebound 21.8% 22.2%