NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA MEM
Points 110.7 102.0
Total Points   212.7
Points From 2-Pointers 52.2 47.7
Points From 3-Pointers 40.0 39.4
Points From Free Throws 18.5 15.0
Shooting MIA MEM
Field Goals Made 39.4 37.0
Field Goals Attempted 84.3 84.9
Field Goal % 46.8% 43.5%
2 Pointers Made 26.1 23.8
2 Pointers Attempted 49.2 45.6
2 Point Shooting % 53.1% 52.2%
3 Pointers Made 13.3 13.1
3 Pointers Attempted 35.2 39.3
3 Point Shooting % 37.9% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 18.5 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 22.5 19.5
Free Throw % 81.9% 76.6%
Ball Control MIA MEM
Rebounds 49.5 47.2
Rebounds - Defensive 39.0 36.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 11.1
Turnovers 13.0 14.0
Blocked Shots 4.1 5.6
Steals 7.7 6.8
Fouls 15.9 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Memphis

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA MEM
Total Possessions 99.6
Effective Scoring Chances 97.2 96.7
% of Possessions with MIA MEM
2 Point Attempt 43.7% 40.6%
3 Point Attempt 31.3% 35.0%
Player Fouled 17.5% 16.0%
Turnover 13.0% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA MEM
Shot Blocked 6.7% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 22.6% 22.2%