NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA ATL
Points 117.4 112.1
Total Points   229.4
Points From 2-Pointers 57.6 54.5
Points From 3-Pointers 41.3 41.1
Points From Free Throws 18.5 16.5
Shooting MIA ATL
Field Goals Made 42.6 40.9
Field Goals Attempted 86.6 88.3
Field Goal % 49.1% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made 28.8 27.2
2 Pointers Attempted 51.3 49.2
2 Point Shooting % 56.1% 55.4%
3 Pointers Made 13.8 13.7
3 Pointers Attempted 35.3 39.2
3 Point Shooting % 39.0% 35.0%
Free Throws Made 18.5 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 22.7 21.1
Free Throw % 81.5% 78.3%
Ball Control MIA ATL
Rebounds 48.0 47.8
Rebounds - Defensive 37.8 35.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 11.9
Turnovers 11.8 12.4
Blocked Shots 3.6 4.0
Steals 7.1 5.8
Fouls 16.2 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Atlanta

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA ATL
Total Possessions 101.5
Effective Scoring Chances 99.9 101.1
% of Possessions with MIA ATL
2 Point Attempt 45.3% 42.8%
3 Point Attempt 31.2% 34.1%
Player Fouled 17.1% 16.0%
Turnover 11.6% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 5.7% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA ATL
Shot Blocked 4.6% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 22.1% 24.0%