NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA ATL
Points 117.6 112.0
Total Points   229.7
Points From 2-Pointers 57.9 54.2
Points From 3-Pointers 41.3 41.5
Points From Free Throws 18.5 16.4
Shooting MIA ATL
Field Goals Made 42.7 40.9
Field Goals Attempted 86.4 88.3
Field Goal % 49.4% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made 28.9 27.1
2 Pointers Attempted 51.2 48.9
2 Point Shooting % 56.5% 55.4%
3 Pointers Made 13.8 13.8
3 Pointers Attempted 35.2 39.4
3 Point Shooting % 39.1% 35.1%
Free Throws Made 18.5 16.4
Free Throws Attempted 22.5 20.9
Free Throw % 82.0% 78.3%
Ball Control MIA ATL
Rebounds 47.8 47.5
Rebounds - Defensive 37.8 35.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 11.9
Turnovers 11.8 12.3
Blocked Shots 3.6 4.0
Steals 7.1 5.9
Fouls 16.1 17.2

Playing Style Advantage: Atlanta

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA ATL
Total Possessions 101.4
Effective Scoring Chances 99.6 100.9
% of Possessions with MIA ATL
2 Point Attempt 45.3% 42.7%
3 Point Attempt 31.1% 34.3%
Player Fouled 17.0% 15.9%
Turnover 11.7% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA ATL
Shot Blocked 4.6% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 22.0% 23.9%