NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA CHA
Points 116.4 119.9
Total Points   236.3
Points From 2-Pointers 58.7 50.3
Points From 3-Pointers 40.5 52.7
Points From Free Throws 17.1 16.9
Shooting MIA CHA
Field Goals Made 42.9 42.7
Field Goals Attempted 92.6 92.7
Field Goal % 46.3% 46.1%
2 Pointers Made 29.4 25.1
2 Pointers Attempted 54.9 46.9
2 Point Shooting % 53.4% 53.6%
3 Pointers Made 13.5 17.6
3 Pointers Attempted 37.6 45.9
3 Point Shooting % 35.9% 38.3%
Free Throws Made 17.1 16.9
Free Throws Attempted 21.6 20.4
Free Throw % 79.3% 82.8%
Ball Control MIA CHA
Rebounds 48.4 54.9
Rebounds - Defensive 36.3 39.7
Rebounds - Offensive 12.1 15.3
Turnovers 10.5 13.3
Blocked Shots 3.9 4.3
Steals 7.0 5.9
Fouls 16.1 17.5

Playing Style Advantage: Charlotte

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA CHA
Total Possessions 103.5
Effective Scoring Chances 105.1 105.5
% of Possessions with MIA CHA
2 Point Attempt 46.8% 39.0%
3 Point Attempt 32.1% 38.1%
Player Fouled 16.9% 15.5%
Turnover 10.2% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 5.7% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA CHA
Shot Blocked 4.7% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 23.4% 29.6%