NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA NY
Points 104.8 108.6
Total Points   213.5
Points From 2-Pointers 52.6 51.8
Points From 3-Pointers 35.7 41.6
Points From Free Throws 16.5 15.2
Shooting MIA NY
Field Goals Made 38.2 39.8
Field Goals Attempted 84.4 85.7
Field Goal % 45.3% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 26.3 25.9
2 Pointers Attempted 51.3 46.9
2 Point Shooting % 51.3% 55.2%
3 Pointers Made 11.9 13.9
3 Pointers Attempted 33.1 38.8
3 Point Shooting % 36.0% 35.8%
Free Throws Made 16.5 15.2
Free Throws Attempted 20.4 19.5
Free Throw % 80.8% 78.1%
Ball Control MIA NY
Rebounds 45.5 50.5
Rebounds - Defensive 35.2 37.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 12.9
Turnovers 11.1 12.2
Blocked Shots 3.3 4.3
Steals 6.2 5.8
Fouls 15.5 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA NY
Total Possessions 97.0
Effective Scoring Chances 96.2 97.7
% of Possessions with MIA NY
2 Point Attempt 47.1% 42.2%
3 Point Attempt 30.3% 34.9%
Player Fouled 16.8% 16.0%
Turnover 11.4% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA NY
Shot Blocked 5.0% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 21.5% 26.8%